Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
